Last Week at The Wolverine Den

Tailgate Attendance

Game Preview

The Michigan Wolverines return to the gridiron following their bye week with a trip to Champaign, Illinois to battle the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois will be commemorating the 100th anniversary of Red Grange and his 6-touchdown performance against Michigan in October of 1924. The Illini will be wearing 1920s-themed uniforms. Michigan will be wearing white.

The two teams are on similar trajectories this year. Or are they? Illinois is 5-1 and ranked #22. Michigan is 4-2 and ranked #24. But it has been quite a while since Illinois has been a formidable opponent. They have only one winning record in the past 12 seasons. Head Coach Bret Bielema has 17 years as a D1 coach with prior stops at Wisconsin and Arkansas. His career record against Michigan is 3-3. Bielema-coached teams are usually tough at the point of attack and play disciplined football. But this Illini team is a hard one to figure out. Their best win so far is beating Nebraska in Lincoln. But that's probably a game they should have lost. They played Penn State tough but lost by 14 points. Then last week, as a 23-point favorite over struggling Purdue, Illinois won 50-49 in overtime when Purdue tried to win the game with a 2-point conversion that failed. Purdue was averaging 11 points per game against FBC teams this year. Hard to figure.

The Wolverine Den Trivia

Q: The University of Michigan currently has 5 athletic teams ranked in the top 10 of their sport. Who are they?

A: Men's Gymnastics is ranked #2; Women's Gymnastics is ranked #6; Women's Field Hockey is ranked #7; Men's Hockey is ranked #10, and Men's Wrestling is ranked #10.

Illinois is led by QB Luke Altmyer, who is starting for the second year. He has improved greatly, completing 67.6% of his passes for 238 yards per game with 14 TDs and only 1 interception. Illinois uses a running back by committee with the group averaging 4.5 yards per carry (after adjusting for sacks). And sacks have been plentiful. Illinois has given up 19 sacks on the year, 121st in the nation. Only 8 schools have given up more. Wide receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin have combined for 798 receiving yards and 8 TDs.

On defense, Illinois doesn't have a lot of stars but play team defense. They don't blitz much but do play position defense behind mostly man coverage. They have 7 players with 20+ tackles and 10 players that have a sack, the terrible performance against Purdue notwithstanding. The punter is average while the kicker has made 10-12 field goals this year. Illinois also has a backup kicker with a big leg that made a 59-yarder earlier this year in his only attempt.

For some reason, Illinois gets particularly excited for its matchups with Michigan. They seem to have no natural or historic rivals so they adopted Michigan as the most hated (one would think Ohio State would have more naturally fit into this role). So they usually play us tough. The last game against Michigan resulted in the season-ending injury to Blake Corum near the end of the 2022 season. The Wolverines won that day with a Jake Moody field goal with :06 seconds remaining.

This game is about how Michigan competes for the rest of the season. The bye week came at an ideal time, allowing injuries to heal and to allow the new starting QB to get reps. The Michigan defense is good but have had a few injuries and their depth is limited. When the offense doesn't control the ball, the defense plays more snaps and tires out. We have seen this in the 4th quarter of the last 3 games. Better ball control on offense keeps the defense fresher and is the recipe for winning. With Jack Tuttle, the offense will be more balanced and effectively control the game tempo, which then gives the defense a better chance to shut down the opponent.

Michigan leads the all-time series with Illinois 72-23-2 and holds a 36-5-2 record against them since the start of the Bo era. Michigan is 16-8 since 2000 coming off a bye week.

The Wolverines are a 3-point favorite. So let me get this straight. Illinois is ranked higher than Michigan, has a better record, and is playing at home. But Michigan is favored, got it.

Post-Game Summary

Michigan lost their second consecutive road game with a 21-7 defeat by Illinois in Champaign. The Wolverines fell behind 13-0 and could not make it all the way back. After cutting the lead to 13-7 at the half, Michigan forced an Illini punt, which was a fake that turned into a 36-yard run deep into Michigan territory. The ensuing touchdown made it 21-7. Two long drives in the second half, a 15-play drive and a 12-play drive, resulted in no points for Michigan. The Wolverines outgained Illinois 322-267 but special teams’ mistakes and penalties were their downfall.

Michigan is now 5-3 in their last 8 games. Both Ohio State and Alabama are also 5-3 in their last 8 games (including both having lost to Michigan).

While most of the goals and aspirations for the season are now gone, this team is still the reining National Champions and the trophy case inside Schembechler Hall still holds every trophy that Michigan plays for, National Championship, B1G Championship, Rose Bowl, Little Brown Jug, George Jewitt, and The Paul Bunyan. Let's not forget these incredible accomplishments as the team struggles to get back to winning.

Steve's Prediction

24-21

Tim's Prediction

24-20

Brown's Prediction

27-20

Craig's Prediction

30-20

Craig 18, Tim 18, Brown 17½, Steve 16½