Last Week at The Wolverine Den

Michigan 24 - Michigan State 17 (Football Alumni Recognition)

Michigan Stadium

October 26, 2024 - 7:30 p.m. ET

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It's Michigan vs Michigan State. Rivalry Week. Little Brother. Assault in the tunnel. Night game. Paul Bunyan Trophy. Wow. But it is also the 4-3 Wolverines against the 4-3 Spartans. Not the game anyone expected. While the game does not have national championship (or even Big Ten Championship) implications, it is still the in-state rivalry that will be talked about over the next year. And the game is at night for only the 4th time.

For the Wolverines, this is a very important game. The aspirations of the season are mostly gone after two straight road losses. But there is still much to play for. Our two biggest rivals remain in front of us and the season can be somewhat salvaged. The team that wants it more will be the victor.

Michigan State is led by redshirt freshman QB Aiden Chiles. He was a five-star recruit that transferred to MSU when Jonathan Smith became the Spartan coach from Oregon State. Chiles is very athletic and has improved greatly since the start of the season. He is completing 59.3% of his passes for 209 yards per game with 6 TDs and 9 interceptions. Not terrible for a freshman. But last week against Iowa's stellar defense, Chiles completed 73% for 256 yards, 1 TD and only 1 interception. Plus, he rushed for 70 yards (not counting sacks). Against that Iowa defense, MSU never punted and had a nearly 2-1 time-of-possession edge. They did struggle in the red zone, attempting 7 field goals in the game (but making 6 of them). Chiles has capable receivers in Nick Marsh, Montorie Foster, and Jack Velling. The running back committee is Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter. The O-line is young but improving.

On defense, Jordan Turner, a Wisconsin transfer, leads the team in tackles, tackles-for-loss, and sacks. The secondary is experienced but not great. The punter has a big leg but most of the punts are touchbacks. The kicker is excellent.

This game has historically come down to who rushes the ball better. Statistically, the match up on rushing is pretty even. More likely, the turnover battle will have a major impact on the result. Michigan is -7 in turnover margin for the year (8 forced turnovers and 15 lost turnovers) to rank 118th in the nation. MSU is -6 net (9 forced vs 15 lost) to rank 111th. Both are bad.

Not sure who will be the starting M quarterback. But it should be whichever one can hand the ball off while completing a few passes and not turning the ball over.

Michigan leads the all-time series 73-38-5 and have won 14 of the last 20 games played in Ann Arbor. Michigan is 2-1 vs MSU in night games and are 50-28 all-time in night games, including winning 16 of their last 17.

The Wolverines are a 5-point favorite.

Post-Game Summary

Michigan got back in the win column and retained the Paul Bunyan trophy with a hard-fought 24-17 victory over Michigan State. It was an ugly start for the Wolverines who were outgained 135 yards to 15 yards in the 1st quarter. Fortunately, Sparty missed a short field goal and Michigan only trailed 7-0. The Maize and Blue finally got the offense in gear and were able to score just before halftime. Then a Spartan fumble turned into a Michigan field goal and we took a 9-7 lead at the break. Michigan went right down the field to open the 2nd half and added another touchdown at the start of the 4th quarter to take a 24-10 lead. MSU was able to score a late TD but the Wolverines held on for the victory.

Davis Warren started at QB for Michigan and played a respectable game. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings combined for only 42 yards on 22 carries. But Alex Orji came in and gave the Wolverines a spark with some 1st downs when we needed it. Orji finished with a team high 64 yards on just 6 carries, plus a touchdown. While the Michigan running backs struggled to gain yardage on the ground, Donovan did have the halfback pass to Colston Loveland for the game winning TD. Donovan is now 4-4 throwing the ball in his Michigan career for 131yards and 2 TDs, for a passing rating of 504, the highest passer rating ever recorded for any player ever in college football (that we could find). By comparison, JJ McCarthy holds the Michigan record for highest career passer rating at 160.5 and the NCAA record is 199.4, by Tua Tagovailoa. After the disastrous first quarter, Michigan out yarded the Spartans 250-217. Michigan committed 0 turnovers, committed 0 penalties and allowed 0 sacks. It was a much better performance.

Tim's Prediction

24-14

Steve's Prediction

20-17

Brown's Prediction

20-17

Craig's Prediction

16-13

Tim 22, Brown 20, Steve 19, Craig 19

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